EN-ICHI Opens Up the Future of Family and Community
[Info. File] By 2050, Single-Person Households Reach 44.3%; Six in Ten Older Men Living Alone Will Be Never-Married
Based on IPSS, “Household Projections for Japan” (National Institute of Population and Social Security Research)
According to the IPSS release "Household Projections for Japan" (国立社会保障・人口問題研究所「日本の世帯数の将来推計」)(published April 12, 2024), Japan’s total number of households will peak at 57.73 million in 2030 and decline to 52.61 million by 2050. The projections, compiled every five years from census data, estimate household numbers by family type for the 30 years from 2020 to 2050, revealing a future Japan marked by accelerating population decline and a sharp rise in one-person households.
As household solo-living advances, average household size falls from 2.21 persons in 2020, drops below 2.00 in 2033, and reaches 1.92 by 2050.
By household type, one-person (“single”) households increase from 21.15 million in 2020 to 24.53 million in 2036, then ease to 23.30 million in 2050. In contrast, couple-with-children households decline from 14.01 million to 11.30 million, couple-only from 11.21 million to 9.95 million, and single-parent-with-child from 5.03 million to 4.85 million (all by 2050).
The share of one-person households rises from 38.0% (2020) to 44.3% (2050)—a jump of 6.3 points. Single-parent-with-child edges up from 9.0% to 9.2%, while couple-with-children drops 3.7 points, from 25.2% to 21.5%.
Compared with the previous projection (2018; projection window 2015–2040), which put one-person households at 37.9% in 2030 and 39.3% in 2040, solo-living is advancing faster than anticipated.
A key driver of the increase in older one-person households is the rising never-married rate. Among single-person households aged 65+, the never-married share for men is projected to jump from 33.7% (2020) to 59.7% (2050), and for women from 11.94% to 30.2%.
Source: Compiled by the author based on IPSS, “Household Projections for Japan (National Projections), FY2024 estimates” (国立社会保障・人口問題研究所『日本の世帯数の将来推計（全国推計）』（令和6（2024）年推計）).
Around 2045, when the number of households headed by someone aged 65+ is projected to peak, the timing overlaps with the projected window for a major Nankai Trough earthquake, making emergency disaster response for older adults living alone even more critical. As solo-living among seniors expands, lonely deaths will likely increase; third parties will need to assume post-mortem administration such as death notifications, funerals, and sorting of personal effects.
While marriage is a matter of individual choice, a rapid rise in never-married older adults without spouses, children, or close relatives will make revisions to pensions, long-term care, medical care, and other social security systems unavoidable.
(Published with additions and revisions in the May 2024 issue of "EN-ICHI FORUM")
