EN-ICHI Opens Up the Future of Family and Community
[Info. File] In 30 Years, One in Five Municipalities Will Halve Their Population; Total Population to 63 Million by 2100
Based on the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS), "Population Projections for Japan"
In 2022, the number of babies born to Japanese nationals residing in Japan fell below 800,000 for the first time, to 770,759. In 2023 it was 727,277. According to the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare’s preliminary Vital Statistics released in February 2025, total births including foreign nationals were 720,988, a new record low. The finalized figure for Japanese nationals only is expected to be in the 690,000s (to be published around June of the following year).
Preliminary figures show 499,999 marriages in 2024, up 10,718 from the previous year—the first increase in two years. Even so, the total remained below 500,000 for the second consecutive year. (From 2014–2017 marriages were in the 600,000s; from 2018–2022 they stayed in the 500,000s.)
Stubbornly weak marriage numbers reflect, among other factors, economic challenges for young people and declining motivation to marry. Another driver is the continuing decline—particularly outside major urban areas—in the population of women aged 20–34, the prime marriage ages.
According to the IPSS "Regional Population Projections" published in December 2023, by 2050 every prefecture except Tokyo will have fewer people than in 2020, and 11 prefectures, including Akita, will see their populations shrink by 30% or more.
Source: Compiled by the author based on IPSS, “Population Projections for Japan (2023 estimates)” (国立社会保障・人口問題研究所『日本の将来推計人口（令和5年推計）』).
By 2050, the 65+ population share will exceed 40% in 25 prefectures. The highest will be Akita (49.9%), and the lowest Tokyo (29.6%).
That said, the absolute number of older adults will begin to decline mainly outside the largest metro areas: in 26 prefectures, the 65+ population in 2050 will be below its 2020 level.
At the municipal level, 20% of cities, wards, towns, and villages will have less than half their 2020 population by 2050.
Under IPSS’s medium-variant projections released in 2023, the child population (ages 0–14) will fall from the current 14 million–plus to below 10 million in 2053, and to 5.69 million in 2070. Children’s share of the total will drop from 11.9% (2020) to 7.1% (2070).
The working-age population (15–64) will decline from about 74 million today to about 62 million in 2040. Japan’s total population is projected to halve to 63 million by 2100.
Meanwhile, the old-age share (65+) will continue to climb—especially in major metropolitan areas—from 28.6% in 2020 to 38.7% in 2070, and 40% in 2100. Going forward, Japan’s total population will decrease by roughly one million per year. The country is compelled to design a long-term national strategy predicated on demographic decline.
(Published with additions and revisions in the February 2024 issue of "EN-ICHI FORUM")
