[Info. File] Shifting from Low-Birthrate Measures to a Population Strategy Aiming for an 80-Million Nation by 2100

From the Population Strategy Council's "Population Vision 2100"

On January 10, 2024, the Population Strategy Council (chaired by Mimura Akio), a group of private sector experts, published a proposal titled "Population Vision 2100: Towards a stable, growing nation of 80 million people." The proposal states that Japan will fall into a spiral of shrinkage and stagnation due to a "rapid population decline," and sets out a national strategy aiming to achieve a "stable population of 80 million" by 2100

Source: Created by the author based on the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism's "Long-term Outlook for the Nation" Interim Report

Japanese society, facing a sharp decline in population, will be forced to shrink and withdraw, drastically narrowing its range of choices. Simultaneously, as "super-aging" progresses, intergenerational conflict will intensify, leading to the "disappearance of rural areas." This will result in widespread "sociopsychological stagnation," the report warns.

This proposal first emphasizes the need to "share public awareness" of the "serious situation" caused by population decline. Furthermore, it stresses the importance of initiatives that allow young people, especially women who bear a heavy burden of childcare, to have hope for the future.

The National Institute of Population and Social Security Research's 2021 "Basic Survey on Fertility Trends" showed a sharp increase in the percentage of unmarried women who envision a life course of "working without having children," from 5.8% in 2015 to 12.2%. The "non-marriage employment course," where women have neither children nor families, was the highest at 33.3%.

Economic factors such as income and employment have been pointed out as contributing factors to the decline in motivation to marry and have children. According to the same survey, the marriage rate among men aged 30-34 is highest for regular employees at 59.0%, while it is significantly lower for part-time and temporary workers at 15.7%, indicating a large disparity depending on employment type.

Furthermore, although the birth rate among women with a junior high school or junior college education exceeds that of women with a university degree, the birth rate itself continues to decline.

From the perspective of intergenerational succession, this proposal argues that it is necessary to promote the creation of a "cooperative parenting society" where fathers, families, and communities jointly raise children, rather than the

mother bearing the sole responsibility. By addressing these issues, it puts forward a "population stabilization strategy" aimed at mitigating the rate of population decline and achieving population stability. At the same time, it presents a "resilience strategy" to build a diverse and growth-oriented society. Specifically, it proposes increasing the productivity growth rate by strengthening "investment in people."

This proposal will represent a step towards a policy shift away from measures to combat the declining birthrate that are heavily focused on childcare support, and toward a population strategy aimed at a sustainable society.

(This article is an edited and revised version of an article originally published in the February 2024 issue of 'EN-ICHI FORUM'.)

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