[Info. File] Shifting from Low-Birthrate Measures to a Population Strategy Aiming for an 80-Million Nation by 2100

From the Population Strategy Council's "Population Vision 2100"

On January 10, 2024, the Population Strategy Council (chaired by Mimura Akio), a group of private sector experts, published a proposal titled "Population Vision 2100: Towards a stable, growing nation of 80 million people." The proposal states that Japan will fall into a spiral of shrinkage and stagnation due to a "rapid population decline," and sets out a national strategy aiming to achieve a "stable population of 80 million" by 2100

Source: Created by the author based on the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism's "Long-term Outlook for the Nation" Interim Report

As Japan's population rapidly declines, society will be forced to shrink and retreat, dramatically narrowing its range of choices. At the same time, the "super-aging" trend will intensify conflicts between generations and accelerate the "disappearance of rural areas." This situation, the report warns, could lead to widespread "social and psychological stagnation."

The proposal emphasizes the need to first "share public awareness" of the "serious situation" caused by population decline. Furthermore, it emphasizes the importance of efforts to instill hope in young people, especially women who shoulder the bulk of the childcare burden, for the future.

According to the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research's 2021 "Basic Survey on Fertility Trends," the percentage of unmarried women who envision a life course of "working without having children" has risen sharply to 12.2%, up from 5.8% in 2015. Furthermore, the "non-married working course"—not having children or a family—was the most popular, at 33.3%.

Economic factors such as income and employment have been cited as contributing factors to the decline in desire to marry and have children. According to the same survey, the highest rate of marital status for men aged 30 to 34 is 59.0% for full-time workers, compared with 15.7% for part-time or casual workers, showing a large disparity between employment types.

Furthermore, while the birth rate among women with junior high, high school, or junior college degrees exceeds that of women with university degrees, the birth rate itself continues to decline.

From the perspective of intergenerational succession, this proposal emphasizes the need to promote the creation of a "co-parenting society" in which fathers, families, and communities share the

responsibility of child-rearing, rather than relying solely on mothers. By addressing these issues, the proposal proposes a "population stabilization strategy" to slow the rate of population decline and stabilize the population. At the same time, it also proposes a "resilience strategy" to build a society rich in diversity and with growth potential. Specifically, it aims to increase productivity growth by strengthening "investment in people."

This proposal marks a step toward a policy shift away from measures to combat the declining birthrate that focus too much on child-rearing support and toward a population strategy aimed at building a sustainable society.

(Revised and expanded version of the article in the February 2024 issue of EN-ICHI FORUM)

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