Examining South Korea’s Persistently Record-Low Birthrate: Can the Flight from Marriage Among Young People Be Reversed?

South Korea, which suffers from the world's lowest birth rate, saw its birth rate fall to 0.72 last year, the lowest on record for eight consecutive years. Despite nationwide efforts, the country's declining birthrate continues to show no signs of slowing down

• The Hyper–Low Fertility Phenomenon
• Measures to address rising housing costs
• The number of people who think "marriage is a must" is rapidly declining
• Gender conflict

The Hyper–Low Fertility Phenomenon

Statistical Korea announced in late February 2024 that South Korea's total fertility rate (the number of children born to each woman aged 15 to 49 over her lifetime) for 2023 was 0.72, down 0.06 from the previous year. This is the lowest among OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) member countries and has been declining since 2015.

The decline in marriages and other factors is thought to have contributed to this, particularly since the COVID-19 pandemic began in 2020. Some estimates suggest that the birthrate may fall to the 0.6 range by 2024. The

rapid decline in the birthrate, combined with the aging population in recent years, is sure to lead to an imbalance in the country's overall population structure. According to the agency's estimates, in 2050, roughly a quarter of a century from now, the population under 15 will account for less than 10% of the total, while those aged 65 and over will account for over 40%.

Measures to address rising housing costs

South Korea's declining birthrate is so serious that some have called it "the country on Earth that will disappear the fastest in the 22nd century." Since taking office, the Yoon Seok-yeol administration has introduced a variety of measures to address this issue. The administration has defined five core areas—improving after-school childcare, balancing work and childcare, housing, child support, and health—and formulated policies for each area that are easily understood by the public.

To address rising housing costs, which are one of the main reasons people delay marriage or choose not to have children after marriage, the administration has decided to provide 430,000 condominiums for newlyweds by 2027 and raise the household income limit for low-interest mortgages for newlyweds.

To improve after-school childcare, the administration has also announced a plan to triple home visits to support more than 230,000 households by 2027 and extend daycare hours to prevent working women from having careers that are cut short.

Furthermore, in relation to child support, parents with infants and one-year-olds will be paid 700,000 won (approximately 78,000 yen) and 350,000 won (approximately 39,000 yen) per month as "parental allowances," which will be increased to 1 million won and 500,000 won respectively next year. To help parents balance work and childcare, the system for reducing working hours that utilizes employment insurance and can be used until the child is in the second grade of elementary school will be extended to include the sixth grade, and childcare leave, which can be used by each parent for up to 36 months, will also be extended.

Within the administration, there has been discussion of a shock therapy approach: increasing the budget for addressing the declining birthrate from the current 1.5% of gross domestic product (GDP) to 5%, or around 100 trillion won (US$110 billion), and investing heavily in this area. The ruling People Power Party also considered proposals such as exempting men from military service if they father three or more children with their wives before the age of 30, and providing a monthly child allowance of 1 million won (US$110 billion) from birth until the child turns 18, combining various subsidies.

The Yoon administration has also tasked various ministries and agencies with considering countermeasures to address the current situation, which is being driven by the complex effects of exorbitant extracurricular education costs, a lack of quality jobs, and soaring real estate prices, especially in the Seoul metropolitan area, resulting in a declining birthrate.

However, none of these measures provide a fundamental solution, and appear to be sufficient to change the mindset of young people, especially those who are hesitant to get married or have children.

The number of people who think "marriage is a must" is rapidly declining

The Korea Youth Policy Institute, a government-affiliated think tank, recently released the results of a nationwide survey of over 7,700 elementary, middle, and high school students. The results revealed a sharp increase in the number of people who abstain from marriage and childbirth. The survey found that

, to the question, "Is marriage absolutely necessary?", only just under 30% answered "yes," while over 70% answered "no." Compared to the 2012 survey, where 70% answered "yes," this indicates a sharp decline in the value that marriage is essential over the past decade.

Furthermore, to the question, "Should one have children after marriage?", just under 20% answered "yes." In South Korea, under the influence of Confucian culture, it has long been taken for granted that both men and women should marry at the appropriate age, have children, and start a family. However, the equation "marriage = childbirth" is beginning to weaken. A trend toward keeping pets such as dogs and cats instead of having children is also becoming more widespread.

Changing these young people's perceptions will not happen overnight through government-led measures.

Gender conflict

In addition to attitudes toward marriage and childbirth, gender conflict is also said to be contributing to the declining birthrate.

Feminists, particularly young women who advocate gender equality, argue that gender discrimination against women, such as wage disparities, sexual harassment by men, and a workplace culture that disregards childbirth and childcare, leads to resentment against a male-dominated society and causes gender conflict.

Anti-feminists, on the other hand, argue that radical feminism creates mutual hatred between men and women, leading them to avoid romance and marriage.

This gender conflict, combined with other factors, appears to be accelerating South Korea's declining birthrate. The South Korean government has also acknowledged that "resolving gender conflict could lead to an end to the declining birthrate" (Kim Hyun-sook, Minister of Gender Equality and Family).

However, it is unclear whether this issue will be easily resolved, given the long-standing impact of patriarchy and the subsequent significant advancement and improvement of women's social status.

In an editorial regarding the declining birthrate, the major South Korean newspaper JoongAng Ilbo pointed out the following:

"To solve the problem of declining birthrates, which will determine the fate of the nation... we need a grand plan to create an environment in which people can have and raise children, rather than a one-dimensional measure of giving money to people who have children... We need practical and sustainable policies that make people feel that children are a blessing, not a burden. This will allow the country to survive." It

is no exaggeration to say that South Korea is at a crossroads that will determine the very survival of the nation.

(Originally published in the May 2024 issue of EN-ICHI FORUM)

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