[Info. File] In 30 Years, One in Five Municipalities Will Halve Their Population; Total Population to 63 Million by 2100

From the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research's"Future Population Projections for Japan"

In Japan, the number of births (Japanese citizens living in Japan) fell below 800,000 for the first time in 2022 (770,759), and was 727,277 in 2023. According to preliminary figures for the 2024 demographic statistics released by the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare in February of this year, the annual number of births, including foreigners, is projected to be 720,988, the lowest on record, and the final number, which includes only Japanese citizens born in Japan, is expected to be in the 690,000 range (to be announced around June of next year).

The number of marriages in 2024 is projected to be 499,999 couples according to preliminary figures, an increase of 10,718 couples from the previous year, marking the first increase in two years. However, it remains below 500,000 for the second consecutive year, indicating that the number is still low. (From 2014 to 2017, it was in the 600,000 range, and from 2018 to 2022, it was in the 500,000 range.)

One reason why the number of marriages has not recovered is the economic problems and declining desire to marry among young people. Another factor is the continued decline in the female population aged 20-34, the typical marriage age, particularly in rural areas experiencing population decline.

According to the "Future Projections by Region in Japan" published by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research in December 2023, by 2050, all prefectures except Tokyo will have lower populations than in 2020, and 11 prefectures, including Akita Prefecture, are projected to see population declines of more than 30%.

Source: Compiled by the author based on IPSS, “Population Projections for Japan (2023 estimates)” (国立社会保障・人口問題研究所『日本の将来推計人口（令和5年推計）』).

Furthermore, the proportion of the population aged 65 and over will exceed 40% in 25 prefectures by 2050. The highest is Akita Prefecture (49.9%), and the lowest is Tokyo (29.6%).

However, the population aged 65 and over will begin to decline, mainly in non-metropolitan areas, with 26 prefectures projecting that the population aged 65 and over in 2050 will be lower than in 2020.

Looking at future population projections by municipality, 20% of municipalities will see their population in 2050 be less than half of what it was in 2020.

According to the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research's population projections (published in 2023), the median projection shows that the young population (ages 0-14) will fall from the current 14 million to below 10 million in 2053, and further decrease to 5.69 million in 2070. The proportion of the young population in the total population will decrease from 11.9% in 2020 to 7.1% in 2070.

The working-age population (15-64 years old) is projected to decrease from approximately 74 million currently to approximately 62 million by 2040. Furthermore, Japan's total population is estimated to halve to 63 million by 2100.

Meanwhile, the aging rate (percentage of the population aged 65 and over) will continue to rise, particularly in metropolitan areas. It is projected to increase from 28.6% in 2020 to 38.7% in 2070 and 40% in 2100. In the future, Japan's total population will continue to decline by millions of people annually. We are compelled to develop a long-term national strategy based on the premise of population decline.　

(This article is an edited and revised version of an article from the February 2024 issue of 'EN-ICHI FORUM'.)

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